Make or Break?

I'm currently in an unpleasant situation that I've never been in before. I'm having a losing year at poker.

I've kept detailed records of my poker play for over five years now, and this is the first year ever that I've ever dropped into the red. What's more, it's happened twice this year - I had a losing month in January that set me back a little, and a truly awful June that undid all the good work in February through May.

June was the main culprit, probably because of the World Series of Poker. Ever ambitious, I played three events this year, totalling $5500 in buy-ins. I honestly expected to cash in at least one event, but instead I had three frustrating finishes.

In the first event, the $1500 Razz, I made day 2 as a short stack. This was mainly thanks to Ted Lawson (a player infamous for his board-reading skills, displayed to comedic effect in the 2004 WSOP Pot Limit Omaha broadcast), who crippled me in a typical Razz tournament hand, in which we both started with a draw to a wheel and he ended up showing down a smoother seven low than me.

Entering the Tropical Room at the Rio for Day 2, I felt confident that should I double up, I would have a good chance to make the money and perhaps the final table. I'm not scared of any Razz player in the world - Razz is an extremely theoretical game and my knowledge of poker theory is up there with the best. However, after around half an hour's play, I got it all-in drawing to a seven against Amnon Filipi. A few bricks in a row sent me to the rail.

The next event, a $1500 No Limit Hold'em, ran in similar fashion. In the early stages I was making steady progress - I was concentrating well, and while I wasn't quite running over the table, I had a good read on my opposition and was picking up some nice pots. It all went wrong when I was moved to a new table, full of new unknown players.

There is a new breed of player that simply wasn't around when I first started playing poker - the cocky, young internet player who wants to outplay you in every single pot. One of these players at your table is a blessing, because they will typically give up too much by calling raises with sub-par hands. However, my new table had three such players in a row, with me seated to their right.

That meant that if I wanted to steal the blinds and antes, I had to do it from early position - either that, or be prepared to fire three barrels after the flop. It was a difficult situation, and I didn't handle it too well. Two key hands - one where I got beat with A-K, and one where I got beat by A-K - and I was out. Again, I had made the top 15% of the tournament, but not the money.

Prior to the World Series of Poker, I had played two 2-7 Triple Draw tournaments. Both were multi-table tournaments against reasonably knowledgeable opposition - and I won both. But the third tournament, against a very tough, truly world-class field, was less kind to me. It is the only tournament I have played this year in which I felt outclassed, and I was out after just a couple of hours. Part of the reason was that I did not play as well as my opponents (Bruno Fitoussi, for example, ran an excellent bluff against me), and part of the reason was that I never hit a hand. It seemed like every hand that I would draw one to a seven against an opponent drawing three, and end up with either a pair or a marginal hand, which I would pay off my opponent with after the last draw.

The cash games haven't been kind to me recently either. In critical, preflop all-in pots, I've had K-K beaten by A-K (twice), A-J beaten by A-10, Q-Q beaten by J-J, and A-K beaten by A-Q. I've ran a set of threes into a set of fives, tens full into jacks full (in Omaha Eight or Better - my opponent held J-5-5-3 and caught a well-disguised three on the turn), and top trips into a full house.

This is all beginning to sound like one big bad beat story, so I'll wrap up with what I plan to do.

I have always advised people that when they're running bad, they should drop down in stakes and batten down the hatches. So I've set myself a challenge in bankroll management and game selection, all of which will be played online.

I'll be starting with a bankroll of just $2000, which I will not be allowed to add to or cashout during the challenge. I'll be playing whatever game looks the most profitable - whether it be No Limit Hold'em cash games, Omaha Sit & Gos, or Razz MTTs. The goal is to reach $20,000 by the end of the year. That might seem easy to some, and indeed, it's tempting to just use the whole amount to buy into a $10/$20 game and take my chances.

But the point is to exercise good bankroll management and give myself a great chance to finish the year in profit. It's about reducing variance and grinding out a steady profit, rather than making the most profit at the greatest risk of ruin.

I'll keep you posted.